Modern Water Balance of the Caspian Sea: Potential Disaster Scenarios
Artem Kochnev
ABSTRACT
The study deals with the Caspian Sea modern water balance. Sea level at main hydrological gauges, total river runoff to the Caspian Sea, total precipitation and evaporation data from the ERA-5 reanalysis and outflow to the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay are considered. Based on statistical assessments and a special forecast model, two probabilistic forecasts of the Caspian Sea water level change up to 2070 were given. The first forecast relates to the current hydrometeorological condition of the sea, the second accounts undergoing climate changes. Both scenarios show a rapid drop of the Caspian Sea water level down to -30 m and -32 m respectively from current -28 m driven by climate change models
